New survey finds Trump leading presidential race, Biden dogged by age concerns
The Pew Research Center is out with a new poll that indicates voters are very much worried about Joe Biden’s age, and generally Donald Trump in the presidential race.
The survey, taken after their late June debate in which Biden appeared to struggle to respond to Trump’s attacks, showed a mere 24% of voters describe the president as “mentally sharp”, while more than twice that number feel that way about Trump. Pew notes that views of Biden as mentally sharp are down significantly from 2020, and by six percentage points from January alone.
And while the presidential election will likely be decided in a handful of swing states, Pew found that Trump had a 4 percentage point lead over Biden among registered voters nationwide.
That said, the survey confirms that both men are not exactly well thought of. Identical 63% shares of those surveyed described both Trump and Biden as “embarrassing”, including big shares of their own supporters.
In our new survey, only 24% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden; 58% say the same of Trump.
Meanwhile, about twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) than say that about Biden (31%). https://t.co/gXwCjkgaAO pic.twitter.com/c49nIN34ky
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) July 11, 2024
Key events
NBC News has just published a similarly grim report about the chatter by those close to Joe Biden over his chances of hanging on to the presidency.
“He needs to drop out,” a Biden campaign official told NBC.
They say several of his closest allies, including three people involved in his campaign to win a second term, believe he has “zero” chance of winning, and may swamp Democrats in down-ballot races.
Here’s more, from NBC:
The set of Democrats who think he should reconsider his decision to stay in the race has grown to include aides, operatives and officials tasked with guiding his campaign to victory. Those who spoke to NBC News said the sentiment that he should exit and leave the Democratic nomination to someone else — most likely Vice President Kamala Harris — is widespread even within the ranks of the campaign and the outside Democratic entities supporting it.
“No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path,” said a second person working to elect him.
A third person close to the re-election campaign said the present situation — the questions swirling around Biden’s cognitive abilities, the dearth of fundraising and more polls showing Biden dropping in support and other candidates faring better — is unsustainable. This person also said they didn’t see how the campaign could win.
All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity because they don’t want to be seen as further damaging a candidate they appreciate for his victory over then-President Donald Trump in 2020 and his policy wins in the White House. But two others close to Biden told NBC News that while they haven’t given up all hope of a turnaround, they see that as an increasingly unlikely outcome. And they believe the goal of defeating Trump in November should take precedence over backing Biden.
“The question for me, and a lot of us, is: Who is the best person to beat Donald Trump?” another person working to elect Biden said. “There are a lot of us that are true blue that are questioning our initial thoughts on that.”
Ultimately, the decision rests with Biden on whether he stays in, and the president has been insistent this week that he’s not going anywhere. But these sources say that Biden is done — whether he drops out before November or loses to Trump on Election Day.
In their report, the New York Times says that while people who work with Joe Biden are discussing how to convince him to step aside, the talks do not appear to include his inner circle of confidants.
“The people who are closest to the president, a group that includes some of his longest-serving advisers and members of his family, remain adamant that Mr. Biden will stay in the race. A person familiar with the group dynamics said that such conversations are not happening in the group closest to Mr. Biden, that he is still committed to staying in the race, and that he still believes he is the best person to beat Mr. Trump,” the Times reported.
“The conversations have been happening outside that small orbit.”
Some Biden aides discussing how to convince him to step aside – report
The New York Times reports that some aides to Joe Biden are strategizing ways to convince the president that he cannot win re-election, and that stepping aside to make way for another Democrat is the best way to keep Donald Trump from returning to the White House.
A White House spokesman denied the story. Here’s what the Times reported:
Some longtime aides and advisers to President Biden have become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days they have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should, according to three people briefed on the matter.
A small group of Mr. Biden’s advisers in the administration and the campaign – at least two of whom have told allies that they do not believe he should keep trying to run for a second term – have said they would have to convince the president of several things.
They said they have to make the case to the president, who remains convinced of the strength of his campaign, that he cannot win against former President Donald J. Trump. They have to persuade him to believe that another candidate, like Vice President Kamala Harris, could beat Mr. Trump. And they have to assure Mr. Biden that, should he step aside, the process to choose another candidate would be orderly and not devolve into chaos in the Democratic Party.
Those discussions were recounted by three people familiar with them who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation. There is no indication that any of the discussions have reached Mr. Biden himself, one of the informed people said.
Biden campaign acknowledges debate ‘setback’, sees path to victory through Great Lakes
In a memo acquired by the Guardian, top officials in the Biden-Harris campaign acknowledge that the president has lost standing following the first debate against Donald Trump, but that they believe the race is still winnable.
The most likely path for Joe Biden to be re-elected is by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, reads the memo, which a source familiar said was shared internally by campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez. However, the sun belt states that Biden won in 2020, but which recent polls indicate are drifting away from the president, “are not out of reach”, they write.
“No one is denying that the debate was a setback. But Joe Biden and this campaign have made it through setbacks before. We are clear eyed about what we need to do to win. And we will win by moving forward, unified as a party, so that every single day between now and election day we focus on defeating Donald Trump,” the memo reads.
Biden campaign reportedly looking into Harris’s strength against Trump
The Biden-Harris campaign has commissioned a survey to measure how Kamala Harris would fare in a head-to-head matchup against Donald Trump, the New York Times reports, in a new indication that it is possible Joe Biden could call off his re-election campaign amid mounting concerns about his ability to win.
Here’s what the Times says the campaign is doing, and what it might mean:
The survey, which is being conducted this week and was commissioned by the Biden campaign’s analytics team, is believed to be the first time since the debate that Mr. Biden’s aides have sought to measure how the vice president would fare at the top of the ticket. It was described by three people who are informed about it and insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information. They did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.
The effort, which comes as a growing number of prominent lawmakers call for Mr. Biden to step aside or suggest he should reconsider his plans to run, indicates that his campaign may be preparing to wade into a debate that has consumed the Democratic Party behind closed doors: whether Mr. Biden should step aside for his vice president.
While some of Mr. Biden’s top aides have quietly argued that Ms. Harris could not win the election, donors and other outside supporters of the vice president believe she might be in a stronger position after the debate, and could be a more energetic communicator of the party’s message.
New survey finds Trump leading presidential race, Biden dogged by age concerns
The Pew Research Center is out with a new poll that indicates voters are very much worried about Joe Biden’s age, and generally Donald Trump in the presidential race.
The survey, taken after their late June debate in which Biden appeared to struggle to respond to Trump’s attacks, showed a mere 24% of voters describe the president as “mentally sharp”, while more than twice that number feel that way about Trump. Pew notes that views of Biden as mentally sharp are down significantly from 2020, and by six percentage points from January alone.
And while the presidential election will likely be decided in a handful of swing states, Pew found that Trump had a 4 percentage point lead over Biden among registered voters nationwide.
That said, the survey confirms that both men are not exactly well thought of. Identical 63% shares of those surveyed described both Trump and Biden as “embarrassing”, including big shares of their own supporters.
In our new survey, only 24% of voters say the phrase “mentally sharp” describes Biden; 58% say the same of Trump.
Meanwhile, about twice as many voters describe Trump as mean-spirited (64%) than say that about Biden (31%). https://t.co/gXwCjkgaAO pic.twitter.com/c49nIN34ky
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) July 11, 2024
Joe Biden continues to push back against those calling for him to step aside, albeit gently.
Politico reports that the president’s aides have reached out to delegates ahead of the Democratic national convention in August, and asked questions that seem geared towards making sure they remain loyal to the president ahead of his formal re-nomination.
Here’s more:
Fearing a floor revolt against his nomination, President Biden’s aides are telephoning individual delegates to next month’s Democratic convention to gauge their loyalty to the president, according to three delegates who received a call this week.
After a round of introductory questions confirming each delegate was still planning on going to Chicago and asking if they had served as delegate before, the Biden aide making the calls got to the point, the Democratic activists recalled to me in separate interviews.
One of the delegates said the line of questioning turned with an inquiry along the lines of, “Do you understand what being a pledged delegate means?” before the aide asked: “Do you have any potential disagreements with the president?”
Another delegate said the bottom-line question was even more direct. “‘Is there any reason you couldn’t or wouldn’t support the president at the convention?’” the delegate recalled the aide asking.
The third delegate said the version he received was more open-ended: “’Do you have any concerns?’”
The delegates were thunderstruck at the calls. One of them initially wondered if it was some sort of prank until double-checking the caller ID and seeing Delaware’s area code, 302. After hanging up, each of them reached out to other convention delegates they knew and found these individuals also received the calls.
Michigan congresswoman Hilary Scholten is the latest Democratic lawmaker representing a contentious district to call for Joe Biden to end his bid for re-election.
Swing district lawmakers Angie Craig of Minnesota and Pat Ryan of New York have also called for the president to pass the torch to another Democrat. Here’s our full rundown of the congressional Democrats who have broken with Biden thus far:
Another vulnerable House Democrat calls for Biden to step aside
Hillary Scholten, a Democratic congresswoman from Michigan, a swing state crucial to winning the White House, has joined the ranks of those calling for Joe Biden to call off his re-election bid.
“With the challenges facing our country in 2025 and beyond, it is essential that we have the strongest possible candidate leading the top of the ticket – not just to win, but to govern,” said Scholten, who represents a narrowly Democratic western Michigan district, and is also the first freshman lawmaker to break with the president.
“Joe Biden has been that leader for so long; but this is not about the past, it’s about the future. It’s time to pass the torch.”
Here’s her full statement:
President Biden has served his country well, but for the sake of our democracy, he must pass the torch to a new candidate for the 2024 election. pic.twitter.com/derEO1kl3f
— Hillary Scholten (@HillaryScholten) July 11, 2024
Top House Democrat Jeffries wants to hear from ‘every single’ lawmaker before ‘next step’ on Biden candidacy – report
The Democratic House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries told Punchbowl News that he is aiming to speak with all 213 of his lawmakers about Joe Biden’s candidacy before “the next step” on supporting his re-election campaign:
🚨NEWS — just caught up with @RepJeffries
He said he’s looking forward to concluding his talks with “every single” House Democrat about Biden. And then ….
“We’ll convene as a leadership team and figure out the next step.”
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 11, 2024
While only a small number of Democrats in Congress have called for Biden to end his re-election campaign after he struggled to parry Donald Trump in their first debate, most of the objectors serve in the House.
Jeffries has generally kept mum about the possibility of Biden stepping aside in the days since, while convening meetings with Democrats to hear their thoughts.
Late yesterday, another House Democrat said Joe Biden should step aside.
“While this is a decision for the president and the first lady, I hope they will come to the conclusion that I and others have: President Biden should not be the Democratic presidential nominee,” said Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, who has held office since 1996, and is not running for re-election.
Here’s more:
It is a painful and difficult conclusion but there is no question in my mind that we will all be better served if the president steps aside as the Democratic nominee and manages a transition under his terms. He has earned that right.
The next six months will be critical in the implementation of President Biden’s landmark accomplishments that will define his legacy for generations to come. He should devote his energy and undivided attention to issues of war and peace, the climate crisis, and rebuilding and renewing America. I stand willing to assist in any way possible on these critical efforts.
Clooney called Obama before publishing op-ed encouraging Biden to step aside – report
The actor and Democratic fundraiser George Clooney’s New York Times op-ed published yesterday saying Joe Biden is not able to win re-election and that the party should seek a new nominee represented a blow to the president’s standing.
But today, Politico reports that it may be even worse than it appears. Clooney is said to have called his friend Barack Obama to let him know the piece was coming, and the former president did not object to its publication, nor did he offer any thoughts or advice.
It’s something of a turnaround for the former president, who was quick to defend his one-time deputy Biden following his rough debate performance late last month. Here’s what he said then:
Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the…
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) June 28, 2024
Yesterday, Kamala Harris attacked Project 2025, connecting it with Donald Trump’s statement that he would be a “dictator” on his first day in office, and the supreme court’s recent decision saying he is immune from some charges related to trying to overturn the 2020 election.
“There is so much at stake in this moment, including last week, when the supreme court basically told this individual who has been convicted of fraud, that going forward, he will be immune for activity we know he is prepared to engage in if he gets back into the White House,” the vice-president said in an address to Alpha Kappa Alpha, the nation’s oldest Black sorority.
“Consider: Donald Trump has openly vowed, if re-elected, he will be a dictator on day one, that he will weaponize the Department of Justice against his political enemies, round up peaceful protesters and throw them out of our country and even, and I quote, terminate the United States constitution. What’s more, Trump advisers have created a 900-page blueprint of their agenda for the second term. They call it project 2025.”
She told the audience that the plan calls for cutting social security, eliminating the education department, and repealing a $35 price cap on insulin that was a hard-fought achievement of the Biden administration.
“Let us be clear, this represents an outright attack on our children, our families and our future,” Harris said.
“And all of this is to say, I do believe this is the most existential, consequential and important election of our lifetimes.”
Just what is Project 2025? Joe Biden would like you to read the 900-plus pages of the plan to undo much of his administration’s policies, and remake the US government in the image of conservative groups. But if you do not have time for that, the Guardian’s Rachel Leingang has complied some if its most notable proposals:
Heavyweight conservatives joined together to create a roadmap for a potential second Trump presidency, and they are working to recruit and train the people who would work in an incoming conservative administration.
Project 2025 details across more than 900 pages how Trump and his allies could dismantle and disrupt the US government. It suggests ridding the federal ranks of many appointed roles and stacking agencies instead with more political appointees aligned with and more beholden to Trump’s policy prescriptions.
Led by the rightwing Heritage Foundation, the project showcases a federal government that cracks down intensely on immigration, vanquishes LGBTQ+ and abortion rights, diminishes environmental protections, overhauls financial policy and takes aggressive action against China.
Trump recently attempted to distance himself from the project after the Heritage president, Kevin Roberts, commented that the US is “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be”. But, as many in both parties have noted, Trump’s policies align heavily with Project 2025, which includes a host of former Trump officials and allies as authors and promoters.
His attempt at disavowal also came as Democrats and the Biden campaign have brought more attention to Project 2025 and its aims as a way to inform voters of what could come with a second Trump term.
As Republicans hold convention, Democrats to focus voter attention on Project 2025
The Republican national convention will begin on Monday, where the GOP is expected to formally nominate Donald Trump as their presidential standard bearer.
But the Democrats wants to make the four-day gathering in Milwaukee about something else: the former president’s ties to Project 2025.
“The GOP is descending on Milwaukee next week to showcase the best that they have to offer the American people: a coup-attempting convicted felon,” said Rosemary Boeglin, communications director for the Democratic National Committee.
“If Trump thought Milwaukee was ‘horrible’ before, he won’t be happy when he’s met by a counter-convention from Democrats on the ground who will expose his extreme Project 2025 agenda and hold him accountable for shilling for the rich at the expense of working families, attacking reproductive freedom, and threatening to be a dictator on ‘day one.’”
The DNC and Biden campaign plan daily press conferences and a barrage of advertising in the city, aimed at informing voters about the wide-ranging plan to remake the US government. The counteroffensive will take place in a city that is the largest in Wisconsin, a swing state crucial to both Trump and Joe Biden’s paths to victory.
Biden opens fire on Trump over ties to Project 2025 as he fights for political survival
Good morning, US politics blog readers. Joe Biden’s battle to prove to voters and to Democratic lawmakers that he can serve another four years in the White House continues today. The president will be spending most of Thursday at the Nato summit he is hosting in Washington DC, meeting with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy at 1.30pm, and then holding a closely watched press conference at 5.30pm. Meanwhile, a team of his top advisers is heading to the Capitol to meet with Democratic senators and quell the nascent rebellion against his candidacy. Vermont’s Peter Welch late yesterday became the first senator to say Biden should end his run, after his stumbling performance in his debate against Donald Trump heightened concerns about whether he is too old for the job.
Through all this, the Biden campaign has been busy trying to undercut Trump’s insistence that he knows nothing about Project 2025, a blueprint for remaking America’s government written by conservative groups, and which sounds quite a lot like the former president’s own platform. Kamala Harris decried the plan as “an outright attack on our children, our families and our future” yesterday, while Biden is inviting everyone to read the document.
Here’s what else is going on today:
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A majority of Democrats believe Biden should end his campaign, a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found. It also reported the president was tied with Trump in popular support.
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The GOP-led House of Representatives will vote on whether to hold attorney general Merrick Garland in “inherent contempt” for not turning over recordings of Biden’s interviews with the special counsel investigating his possession of classified documents.
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Inflation came in lower than expected in June, according to just-released government data, a positive sign for the economic trend that has bedeviled Biden’s presidency, and potentially for the Federal Reserve’s intention to eventually lower interest rates.