Walz has made a positive first impression on Americans, Vance not so much – poll
Over the past few weeks, Americans have learned a whole lot more about the Ohio senator JD Vance and the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, respectively, named them as their running mates.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicates that it is Walz who has made a better first impression, with 39% viewing him either strongly or somewhat favorably, and 30% with some degree of unfavorability.
Vance, by contrast, has a 30% favorability rate, and 42% unfavorability. There’s lots to digest in the data, but here’s one interesting finding about the senator: his net favorability is at -10 points among both people without children, and with them, despite Vance decrying Democrats as “childless cat ladies”.
Vance is currently in Milwaukee, and set to soon talk about his proposals to fight crime at a police union. We’ll tell you what he says.
Key events
Joanna Walters
Jon Tester, US Senator from Montana, is one of three Democratic senators who don’t plan to attend the Democratic National Convention next week because they are busily campaigning at home while facing tight races this November, according to several reports.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jackie Rosen of Nevada will also not be pursuing an Italian beef sandwich during downtime in Chicago at the DNC, CBS News reports, citing sources.
The outcome of any one of their races this election could determine which party controls the US Senate.
NPR, referring to Tester as the “last Democrat standing” in bright red Montana, reported that his campaign said that, as the only working farmer in the chamber, he is too busy with the harvest to attend the DNC. He also has not endorsed Kamala Harris for the party’s nomination for president.
CBS says that Tester and Brown both called on Joe Biden to quit his fading re-election campaign, which he eventually did and then endorsed Harris to succeed him. Meanwhile Rosen campaigned for Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, last week in Las Vegas.
Rachel Leingang
Outside the Democratic national convention next week, organizers expect tens of thousands of people to march in Chicago to pressure the party to stop the war in Gaza. Inside the convention, uncommitted delegates plan to push anti-war demands in hopes of winning more allies to the cause.
The two movements show the continued fractures among Democratic voters, even at a time of increased unity.
The anti-war movement has planned for Democratic convention demonstrations for months. Joe Biden’s decision not to continue his re-election campaign and Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket have not hindered those plans.
Voters who cast protest votes in the Democratic primaries in several states won 30 delegates, who are now headed to the convention. Minnesota won the most uncommitted delegates, with 11. Others come from Michigan, Washington, Hawaii and more.
A coalition of more than 200 groups planned the March on the DNC, which is behind protests scheduled for Monday and Thursday at Union Park, near the convention site, to bookend the convention. The group is still wrangling with the city to secure a longer protest route and speaker space, given the high numbers of protesters expected.
Read the full report here.
The day so far
Evidence mounts Kamala Harris and the Democrats have momentum with voters as they head into next week’s pivotal convention in Chicago. The vice-president has a small lead over Trump in crucial swing state Pennsylvania, a poll released yesterday said, while another that came out today showed Americans have a more favorable impression of her running mate Tim Walz than JD Vance, the Ohio senator who is Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick. Later today, Harris will speak in North Carolina about her plan to lower consumer prices, though even some Democratic-leaning economists are skeptical of her proposals against price gouging. The vice-president’s event is scheduled to begin at 2.45pm.
Here’s what else has been going on today:
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Vance defended Trump’s tendency to levy personal attacks against Harris, saying his advice to the former president is: “be yourself”.
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Philadelphia will host the debate between Harris and Trump set for 10 September, and Joe Biden is also to drop by the city today for a few hours for reasons that are not yet clear.
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The Harris campaign criticized Trump, after he yesterday downplayed the importance of the top military award for those killed or wounded in action.
Vance advises Trump to ‘be yourself’ amid worries over his campaign tactics
JD Vance took questions from reporters during his campaign stop at a police union office in Milwaukee, where one wanted to know if he would advise Donald Trump to focus more on policy and less on personal grievances as he looks for an edge against Kamala Harris.
Some prominent Republicans have recently called on Trump to end the personal attacks against Harris and other Democrats – such as questioning the size of her rally crowds or her racial identity – and instead take her to task on the policies where the GOP is seen as having the advantage with voters, such as addressing migration and fighting crime.
But Trump’s running mate Vance sees no need to change tack: “I don’t think the president needs to pivot, and, if I told him that, I can guess what he’d say. I think that the reason that president Trump has been so successful connecting with Americans is, even when they disagree with something that he might say, they know that he just is who he is.
“I’d much rather have a political candidate who I disagreed with 25% of the time, but was a real human being and was willing to speak off the cuff, than to have somebody like Kamala Harris who hides behind a teleprompter and doesn’t speak to the American people directly unless she’s got a script in front of her telling her exactly what to say,” the Ohio senator continued, adding that he was addressing public safety measures in Wisconsin today, and had talked about trade policy and veterans issues at campaign stops earlier in the week.
“My only advice to my running mate is, be yourself and let people see who you are. And, I think he’s doing that … now on the campaign trail,” Vance said.
Later today, Kamala Harris will make a speech in North Carolina outlining her economic proposals.
The vice-president is trying to convince Americans that she is the best candidate to lower costs, which rose at rates not seen since the 1980s during Joe Biden’s presidency.
As part of her pitch to voters, Harris will propose a federal ban on price gouging, which her campaign defines as when suppliers unfairly raise prices on consumers.
The New York Times today took a closer look at Harris’s proposal, which addresses a problem that actually has a few different definitions:
To some, it means companies are using shortages as an opportunity to raise prices rapidly, taking advantage of an imbalance between supply and demand to rake in huge profits.
That kind of behavior is common – even expected – in economics, and tends to crop up when products become hard to get.
For others, “price gouging” suggests that companies are choosing to produce less – effectively keeping something in short supply – so that they can charge more. At least in theory, such a situation should be only temporary. New competitors should enter the market and provide products at a price people can afford. And some seem to use the term to mean that companies have been taking advantage of a moment of rapid inflation to pass through price increases of their own.
The Times found that even among some Democratic-leaning economists, Harris’s proposal is controversial, as it may have unintended consequences on the market competition that can lower prices during times of strained supplies – which is what the US went through in 2021 and 2022, as the global economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic:
Isabella Weber, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said that shortages and higher raw material costs during the pandemic seemed to work like a coordination tool: Many companies found that they could charge more because their competitors were doing the same. That allowed them to maintain or even increase profits.
That could set a worrisome precedent, she said. In future shocks, companies may not feel much urgency to rapidly fix supply chain problems, aware that they can pull in big profits in the meantime.
And while the businesses are likely to ramp up production and lower prices in the longer term – they would eventually face consumer pushback or lose out to competitors – even a temporary period of very high inflation can be tough on the average person.
“If the worst of times for ordinary people ends up being the best of times for corporations,” she said, people may feel cheated. “Some sort of basic social contract is kind of crumpling.”
She applauded Ms Harris’s plan to combat grocery price gouging.
Mr Furman [a former Obama administration economist], by contrast, said there was a risk that policies meant to curb corporate price gouging could instead keep the economy from adjusting. If prices do not rise in response to strong demand, new companies may not have as much inclination to jump into the market to ramp up supply.
“This is not sensible policy, and I think the biggest hope is that it ends up being a lot of rhetoric and no reality,” he said. “There’s no upside here, and there is some downside.”
In further good news for Democrats, a Washington Post analysis of polling data confirms that the Sun belt states Joe Biden carried in 2020 appear winnable by Kamala Harris this year, expanding the vice-president’s pathways to the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. Here’s more, from the Guardian’s Robert Tait:
Kamala Harris’s surge in popularity since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has opened up a surprise second path to victory in November, according to a fresh analysis of recent voter surveys.
An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.
If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.
The opening up a potential second front in Harris’s pathway to victory may be the biggest boon yet from her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, whose only path to staying in office appeared to hinge on winning the three Rust belt states.
Walz has made a positive first impression on Americans, Vance not so much – poll
Over the past few weeks, Americans have learned a whole lot more about the Ohio senator JD Vance and the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, respectively, named them as their running mates.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicates that it is Walz who has made a better first impression, with 39% viewing him either strongly or somewhat favorably, and 30% with some degree of unfavorability.
Vance, by contrast, has a 30% favorability rate, and 42% unfavorability. There’s lots to digest in the data, but here’s one interesting finding about the senator: his net favorability is at -10 points among both people without children, and with them, despite Vance decrying Democrats as “childless cat ladies”.
Vance is currently in Milwaukee, and set to soon talk about his proposals to fight crime at a police union. We’ll tell you what he says.
Joanna Walters
Joe Biden is expected to jump on the phone later today with the leaders of Qatar and Egypt amid a glimmer of progress towards a deal for a ceasefire deal in Gaza, including the return of remaining hostages, according to a report.
An Axios reporter has posted about this, citing a source with knowledge of the situation.
President Biden is expected to speak today on the phone with the Emir of Qatar and the President of Egypt about the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, according to a source with knowledge https://t.co/X93cRNDNSy
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) August 16, 2024
There is also a quote in another post, from the source, saying: “We got more progress over the last two days than the last six weeks combined.”
Overnight, Israeli forces pounded targets across tiny, crowded Gaza and issued new orders for people to leave areas it had previously designated as civilian safe zones, saying Hamas had used them to fire mortars and rockets at Israel, the Reuters agency reports, as useful context.
The conflict began on 7 October when Hamas fighters rampaged into southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and seizing around 250 hostages according to Israeli tallies.
Israel’s military campaign has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. Israel says it has eliminated 17,000 Hamas fighters.
Blinken to meet Netanyahu as ceasefire talks go on – report
Joanna Walters
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, are expected to meet in person on Monday, an Israeli official told Reuters, adding the Israeli delegation at the Doha ceasefire talks would head back to Israel tonight.
Gaza ceasefire talks in the Qatari capital were paused earlier today with negotiators set to meet again next week in search of an agreement to end fighting between Israel and Hamas and free remaining hostages, mediators said.
In a joint statement, the US, Qatar and Egypt said Washington had presented a new proposal that built on points of agreement over the past week, closing gaps between the sides in a way that could allow rapid implementation of a deal.
The path is now set for that outcome, saving lives, bringing relief to the people of Gaza, and de-escalating regional tensions,” mediators said in the statement.
Governor announces replacement for disgraced New Jersey senator Menendez
Joanna Walters
Phil Murphy, the governor of New Jersey and a Democrat, has announced that he will appoint George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to the US Senate.
Helmy will replace the senator Robert Menendez, who is stepping down next week after being convicted of bribery.
He will serve out the rest of Menendez’s term, which ends in January.
However, the congressman Andy Kim won the Democratic primary earlier this year when he challenged Menendez for his seat. He beat Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, as well as Menendez, for the nomination and will face voters this November.
Phil Murphy also bypassed several other candidates who had been considered contenders, appointing one of his closest allies, Helmy, instead.
The move, Reuters reports, will maintain the Democratic party’s 51-49 majority in the Senate, until a winner takes office after the 5 November election, when control of Congress and the White House will be up for grabs.
Adam Gabbatt
Donald Trump has been criticized after he claimed that the civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom, which he bestowed on people including Republican supporters and donors during his time in office, is “much better” than the top military award for those killed or wounded in action: the Medal of Honor.
Speaking at a campaign event on Thursday, Trump made the claim as he addressed Miriam Adelson, the widow of Republican mega donor Sheldon Adelson. Trump awarded Miriam Adelson the Medal of Freedom in 2018.
“[The Medal of Freedom is] actually much better because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they’re soldiers,” Trump said.
“They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman. And they’re rated equal.”
Kamala Harris’s election campaign posted a video of Trump’s remarks to X on Thursday, along with a paragraph which quoted the former president verbatim.
Alexander Vindman, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army who testified during Trump’s first impeachment investigation – and was fired by the president – quote-posted the Harris campaign on X, saying: “Trump dishonor[s] Medal of Honor recipients, our nation’s highest military award for distinguished acts of valor. He deserves nothing but disdain and disqualifies himself from public office.”
Trump dishonor Medal of Honor recipients, our nations highest military award for distinguished acts of valor. He deserves nothing but disdain and disqualifies himself from public office. https://t.co/I8LhRxAnhJ
— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) August 16, 2024
Trump has a long history of denigrating service members, including the late John McCain.
Busy times for Philadelphia. The White House just announced that Joe Biden will be stopping in the city today for about three hours, on his way to Camp David for the weekend.
The president has visited Philadelphia repeatedly during his term, both for fundraisers and speeches, including one held in July after his disastrous debate against Donald Trump, but before he ended his bid for a second term:
Speaking of Pennsylvania, polls have lately shown Kamala Harris with the advantage in the state.
Yesterday, a Quinnipiac University survey of likely voters found her leading Donald Trump by three points in a head-to-head match-up, with 50% support to his 47%. If third-party candidates are factored in, she is at 48%, and the former president at 45%.
The university’s findings join other surveys showing the vice-president has the advantage in Pennsylvania, and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with an overall lead of about two percentage points.
Winning Pennsylvania gives Harris a number of avenues to victory, including by carrying regional neighbors Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as the Nebraska congressional district centered on Omaha.
First presidential debate to be held in Philadelphia, ABC News says
Kamala Harris’s first encounter with Donald Trump – Politico reports that they have never met – will be held in Philadelphia on 10 September, the debate’s host ABC News announced this morning:
That’s the largest city in a swing state both campaigns view as crucial to their chances of victory. In addition to the date in September, Harris’s campaign says the vice-president is willing to do a second debate before the 5 November presidential election, though we do not yet know when.
Yesterday, Trump’s running mate JD Vance and Harris’s pick Tim Walz agreed to debate on 1 October.
Just what is Donald Trump’s plan to win another term in the White House? The Guardian’s Hugo Lowell reports that it centers around flipping Pennsylvania from blue four years ago to red this year, an outcome that would leave Kamala Harris with few paths to victory:
Donald Trump and his campaign remain laser-focused on Pennsylvania as the key swing state they have to win to beat Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, according to people familiar with the matter. The former president is preparing to hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday afternoon.
The Trump campaign believes it still holds the advantage in the electoral college and has the easier paths to victory, despite a torrid month that has seen Harris ride a wave of Democratic enthusiasm and draw roughly level in several polls.
In the most straightforward path to victory, as briefed to senior advisers on the Trump campaign, Trump needs to flip Pennsylvania and Georgia – both of which he won in 2016 but lost in 2020 – while holding on to North Carolina.
The Trump campaign also sees other combinations in play, such as Trump winning Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, which he also won in 2016. But the vast majority of the permutations require him to win the Keystone state, the people said.
Almost all of the roads lead through Pennsylvania. To that end, Trump has scheduled a rally in the state on Saturday to follow his rally in Harrisburg at the end of July. He has also promised to return to Butler county – where he survived an assassination attempt last month – in October.
The states the Trump campaign believes will decide the outcome of the election are the same as before Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris. “The fundamentals are still the same,” a Trump adviser recently said of how they viewed the electoral map unfolding.
Trump announces presidential transition team, despite not yet winning election
No one yet knows who will emerge victorious in the 5 November presidential election, but that has not stopped Donald Trump from announcing his presidential transition team this morning.
The five-person group includes his running mate, Ohio senator JD Vance, two of his sons, and two conservative business figures with ties to the former president.
“We will restore strength, competence and common sense to the Oval Office. I have absolute confidence the Trump-Vance Administration will be ready to govern effectively on Day One,” Trump said in a statement.
The panel will be co-chaired by Howard Lutnick, chairman and CEO of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and a Trump fundraiser, and Linda McMahon, the former Small Business Administration chief under Trump who also co-founded World Wrestling Entertainment. Vance is an honorary chair, as is Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.
Harris to propose fighting child poverty, helping first-time homebuyers in major policy speech
Good morning, US politics blog readers. Kamala Harris is set to make an important economic policy speech today in the battleground state of North Carolina, as she seeks to press the advantage polls show her having against Donald Trump. According to her campaign, the vice-president will propose policies intended to help families and lower costs, including the restoration and expansion of a tax credit that cut child poverty dramatically three years ago, as well as federal assistance with the down payments of first-time homebuyers. We will hear plenty more about the proposals today – both from people who love them and hate them – but one thing we can say right off the top is that Harris is clearly trying to counterattack the toll inflation has taken on the American public, which was one of Joe Biden’s biggest problems during his presidency. The vice-president is scheduled to give her remarks at 2.45pm ET.
There is, of course, news today about Trump, as well, which is that the former president may soon begin holding rallies outside again. He has kept his appearances indoors since an assassin opened fire at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania last month, killing an attendee, wounding Trump and injuring others. Yesterday, media reports emerged that the Secret Service had approved a plan to put bulletproof glass up when the ex-president speaks outdoors, and deploy other security measures such as drones.
Here’s what else is going on today:
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JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will hold his third campaign event in as many days in Milwaukee, the largest city in swing state Wisconsin. His speech, billed as discussing crime, takes place at 12pm.
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The Democratic national convention begins on Monday and concludes on Thursday, with what is expected to be a major speech by Harris. Her campaign this morning announced they would be deploying top Democrats and volunteers to battleground states nationwide to make the case for her candidacy.
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Biden will at 11.15am proclaim a national monument marking a race riot that took place in Springfield, Illinois in 1908, which saw a white mob attack an African American community.