Modi set to win third term but may fall short of landslide victory
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports for the Guardian from Delhi
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, looks set to win a third term in power but early election results indicated he had not achieved the landslide victory that many had predicted.
By early Tuesday afternoon, with half of the 640m votes counted, initial results showed that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and its political allies had won 290 seats, enough to form a majority government to rule for the next five years.
However, it was a decline from their 2019 victory, with the BJP on course to lose almost 70 seats. It was also a distinct departure from the two-thirds majority that many exit polls had predicted over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the opposition alliance, which goes by the acronym India, appeared to far outperform expectations, collectively winning 234 seats, according to the early count. The alliance, formed of more than 20 national and regional opposition parties, had come together for the first time in this election with the aim of defeating Modi, who has been in power since 2014.
Should the results remain consistent as counting continues, it could have significant implications for India’s political landscape after the polls. Since he was elected a decade ago, Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP party have enjoyed a powerful majority, while the opposition – particularly the Congress party – have been seen as weak and unable to stand up the might of the BJP.
But the India coalition proved more resilient than many analysts had expected and was boosted by strong performances by regional parties such as the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party in Tamil Nadu.
Key events
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has won his seat in Varanasi, defeating Congress’s Ajay Rai by a margin of more than 152,000 votes.
While his party, the BJP, is not doing as well as hoped, the data suggests he has won easily in his own constituency.
Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow at Chatham House has said that Narendra Modi’s failure to secure the large majoirty he was seeking may damage his brand and might temper some of the policies he pursues. He said:
This may restrain some of the BJP’s more controversial identity-driven politics, but it will also make it more difficult to make progress on some of the more politically sensitive reforms, for instance labour reforms and land acquisition. This explains the fall in India’s stock market as the results are being announced.
In regard to foreign policy, the Modi government has projected an image of India as a rising and more confident power. Some of this relates to India’s material accomplishments, with India on course to be world’s third largest economy by the end of this decade. However, there is also an ideological angle as the Modi government pursues a more assertive foreign policy and seeks to promote India as a civilizational state.
All of this will continue under a third term Modi government, although it will be tempered by its weaker mandate.”
Suresh Gopi, the local film star who won BJP’s first ever seat in Kerala, has spoken about his historic victory.
In a gushing interview with the Times of India, he said of winning in Thrissur: “I am in totally an ecstatic mood. What was very impossible became gloriously possible…it was not a 62-day campaign process, it was an emotional carriage for the past 7 years.”
The win is a significant one for the BJP, giving them a first foothold in the affluent educated southern state. Kerala has previously been known for being a bastion of left wing politics.
Expressing his admiration for the prime minister, Narendra Modi, Gopi said: “Narendra Modi is my political God… I am not believing in just a manifesto.”
To find out more about how he did it, this dispatch from Tamil Nadu and Kerala includes reporting with Suresh Gopi on the campaign trail.
Sanjay Singh of the Aam Aadmi Party has told the media that today’s results showed the people had voted against “hatred and dictatorship”.
The Times of India quotes him saying “The election results are unfolding today, and the picture is becoming clearer. These elections are a message from the public that they are tired of the BJP’s 10-year rule and want a change.”
He suggested Narendra Modi should consider stepping down after he failed to win by the expected margin. Aam Aadmi is expected to finish with three seats in the new Lok Sabha.
Early leads by India’s election commission projected Narendra Modi’s ruling BJP was leading in 25 of 26 seats in the prime minister’s home state of Gujarat. But party leaders said they were not celebrating victory due to a recent blaze at an amusement park in the state that killed 27 people, including children.
Associated Press reports that C R Patil, a senior leader from Modi’s party, said “We had decided that there will be no celebratory victory or beating of drums. So we are not celebrating.”
26 seats have been declared now. Narendra Modi’s BJP party have won 17 of them and are projected now to win 244 seats in total. That will make it the largest party, but is short of the 272 needed to form an absolute majority.
A politician from Kashmir who has been in New Delhi’s Tihar Jail since 2019 in a terror funding case has won after his rival conceded defeat.
Assocaited Press reports Sheikh Abdul Rashid from northern Baramulla constituency won as an independent candidate, beating former chief minister of the region Omar Abdullah.
“I think it’s time to accept the inevitable,” Abdullah posted to social media. “I don’t believe his victory will hasten his release from prison nor will the people of North Kashmir get the representation they have a right to but the voters have spoken and in a democracy that’s all that matters.”
Rashid’s campaign was run by his two sons, hoping a win for him would lead to his release from prison.
More results are trickling through as declared now, with the early party standings being three seats each for the BJP and Congress, two for the Janata Dal (Secular) party and one seat for the Aam Aadmi party.
At present the Election Commission of India has Narenra Modi’s BJP party as winning the most seats, with it in front in 240 constituencies. Indian National Congress would be the largest party in the opposition India alliance bloc, with a lead in 96 seats.
You can find the results as they are being declared on the Election Commission of India website here.
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
Comedian John Oliver took aim at Modi and the creeping authoritarianism of the BJP in his latest episode of Last Week Tonight. Among his many barbs at the prime minister was the crackdown on opposition and freedom of expression in India over the past decade, and the failure by Narendra Modi to do a press conference in ten years.
Oliver was particularly scathing of the fawning “interviews” of Modi on India’s mainstream media – now seen to be under the thumb of the government – where he was asked hard-hitting questions such as “do you have a best friend?”, “do you carry a purse?” and “how do you eat a mango?”
“Basically, if you criticise Modi, there’s a good chance that things are going to be very unpleasant for you,” said Oliver. “Meaningful criticism of Modi is scarce on TV in India.” It proved to be a prescient comment. This week, the Indian streaming site that usually broadcasts Oliver’s show did not upload this particular episode, and it was not made available on YouTube in India
Only four of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha have been declared. Three of them so far have been won by Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party. The fourth has gone to the Congress party, part of the India alliance that is opposing Modi.
Sanjay Singh, national spokesperson for Aam Aadmi party, has claimed that the exit poll figures were intended to manipulate the stock market. The Times of India quotes him saying “I have been exposing exit polls since last two-three days. Yesterday, I had said that exit poll results were released only to influence the share market, administrative system, Election Commission, it had nothing to do with the reality. What happened to all those exit polls giving over 400, 375 seats?”
Narendra Modi’s BJP-led alliance had campaigned with a slogan indicating it was targeting a victory with 400 seats in the 543 seat Lok Sabha. At present, with counting still progressing, it looks set to be on course for about 300 seats.
The India stock market has fallen sharply today, and the rupee has fallen against the US dollar. Markets had soared on Monday after exit polls indicated there would be a large Modi victory. Reuters spoke to Dipan Mehta, founder director at Elixir Equities in Mumbai, who told the news agency “The biggest disappointment for the market is the fact that BJP does not have a majority [yet]. That opens up a Pandora’s box because all the other players … are all quite volatile.”
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
In another surprise for the polls, the BJP has won its first seat in Kerala, a state in southern India known for being a bastion of left wing politics.
The seat was won in Thrissur by Suresh Gopi, a local film star. The win is a significant one for the BJP, giving them a first foothold in the affluent educated southern state. However, it appeared the party had done less well in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, where they won no seats in 2019, despite the BJP investing vast resources and manpower into trying to win over the state this time round.
For more details about the BJP’s attempts to win over southern India, read our election dispatch from Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where we met Suresh Gopi on the campaign trail.
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
One of the biggest shocks of the early results was the apparent losses faced by the Narendra Modi’s BJP party in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous and politically important state, which has 80 seats and is seen as a bellwether for the rest of the country. Early counts showed that the India alliance was ahead of the BJP’s alliance, with parties gaining more than 30 seats.
Modi set to win third term but may fall short of landslide victory
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports for the Guardian from Delhi
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, looks set to win a third term in power but early election results indicated he had not achieved the landslide victory that many had predicted.
By early Tuesday afternoon, with half of the 640m votes counted, initial results showed that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and its political allies had won 290 seats, enough to form a majority government to rule for the next five years.
However, it was a decline from their 2019 victory, with the BJP on course to lose almost 70 seats. It was also a distinct departure from the two-thirds majority that many exit polls had predicted over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the opposition alliance, which goes by the acronym India, appeared to far outperform expectations, collectively winning 234 seats, according to the early count. The alliance, formed of more than 20 national and regional opposition parties, had come together for the first time in this election with the aim of defeating Modi, who has been in power since 2014.
Should the results remain consistent as counting continues, it could have significant implications for India’s political landscape after the polls. Since he was elected a decade ago, Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP party have enjoyed a powerful majority, while the opposition – particularly the Congress party – have been seen as weak and unable to stand up the might of the BJP.
But the India coalition proved more resilient than many analysts had expected and was boosted by strong performances by regional parties such as the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party in Tamil Nadu.
BJP minister Anurag Thakur, who is standing again in Hamirpur in the state of Himachal Pradesh, and who has previously been accused of stoking religious tensions, has said he is confident that the BJP-led alliance will form the government.
The Times of India quotes him saying “The NDA is leading in the entire nation, and I am confident that the BJP-led NDA will form the government once the final results are out. The country needs a strong government and an honest leader.”
The fact that Narendra Modi’s BJP are under-performing exit poll expectations as votes are counted does not seem to have dampened the enthusiasm among his supporters.
The vote share counted so far is very tight, with the BJP-led alliance on 45.1% and the INDIA alliance on 41.5%, however because India uses the first-past-the-post system, that lead of 3.6 points is looking to translate to a margin of victory of about 55 seats. At the moment 22 seats are projected to be going to candidates not inside the two leading blocs.
Reporting for the BBC from New Delhi, Samira Hussain has described the early indications of the results as “somewhat surprising”. She said “We’re seeing that the BJP-led alliance is leading so far, but we see that the Congress-led Alliance – the INDIA alliance – is actually doing far better, and I think that’s reflected in the moods at both party headquarters here in New Delhi.”
Indian markets, which closed at an all-time high Monday, were down sharply in midday trading Tuesday, after early leads showed fewer seats for Narendra Modi’s governing BJP than had been expected, Associated Press reports.
The latest count shows the Modi-led alliance ahead in 298 seats, enough for a majority but short of the absolute landslide victory he was seeking.