Key events
Some analysis from Mujtaba Rahman, managing director Europe of the risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group, who says that France is “looking at weeks (months) of gridlock and uncertainty” and quotes a senior official as summing up his own sentiments:
France will have to reinvent itself to avoid the worst case scenario in the near future.
Let’s not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won’t govern. But she’s still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 7, 2024
This from a senior French official sums up my own sentiments *perfectly*
“France will have to reinvent itself to avoid the worst case scenario in the near future”
Gridlock, paralysis & a weak & muddled coalition or caretaker Govt is *not* the recipe to do that
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 7, 2024
US Senator Bernie Sanders has also congratulated the French left on their election results:
Here’s a simple fact: If politicians stand with working families, working families will stand with you.
As it turns out, lowering the retirement age & raising the minimum wage are very popular.
Congratulations to the French Left for taking on right-wing extremism and winning.
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) July 7, 2024
“Deadlock” is the most likely outcome of the elections, with no “quick solution” likely in the coming days, according to economist and international law professor Armin Steinbach of HEC Paris business school. He says:
France has no political culture of making coalitions and compromises, like Germany or Italy. That is why it feels like a crisis for the French.
He suggests two main scenarios, first a minority government led by the left wing, leading to a “cohabitation”, in which the president and prime minister come from rival camps. He suggests the NFP could propose a moderate leftwing candidate such as the rather unpopular former president François Hollande. Steinbach continues:
Much depends on whether the NFP will stay united and not break up into old conflicts.
A second scenario could see Macron’s centrist alliance and the Republicans form a coalition minority government.
This would be very unpopular and may trigger protests because he [Macron] clearly lost the election.
On the president, Steinbach adds:
With his self-confidence he will probably stay on as president until 2027. In other countries, the head of state would resign after such a defeat. With this defeat, he lacks the legitimacy to appoint a new government.
New Caledonia elects first pro-independence Indigenous Kanak MP in decades
New Caledonia has elected a pro-independence Indigenous Kanak candidate to France’s parliament for the first time in decades, in a move seen as a setback to French loyalists in the territory that has been gripped by unrest.
Over the weekend, voters in the French Pacific territory cast their ballots for their representatives in two seats in France’s national parliament. Emmanuel Tjibaou won out over a loyalist candidate in the second round of voting, while rightwing candidate and French loyalist Nicolas Metzdorf won New Caledonia’s second parliamentary seat.
Tjibaou becomes the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in the national assembly since 1986. A political novice, he is the son of a well-known Kanak independence leader, Jean-Marie Tjibaou, who was assassinated in 1989. His win is viewed as setback for the pro-France movement in the territory.
The election comes weeks after deadly violence first flared in the capital, Noumea, over plans from Paris over voting changes. In May, riots began after lawmakers in Paris approved a constitutional amendment to allow recent arrivals to the territory to vote in provincial elections, a decision – since put on ice by president Emmanuel Macron – that the Kanak population feared would further dilute their influence. Kanaks make up about 40% of New Caledonia’s population.
Tjibaou said the elections were “a proof that democracy is alive” in New Caledonia, and that this should be the only way for people to express themselves, RNZ reported.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk summed up the feelings of some in his post welcoming the defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN party at the polls, writing, “In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw.”
Le Pen has previously been friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin and there had been fears in Kyiv that she may take a softer approach to Moscow and cut back on the military aid Paris has extended to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022.
In Paris enthusiasm, in Moscow disappointment, in Kyiv relief. Enough to be happy in Warsaw.
— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) July 7, 2024
The euro slipped in Asian trade on Monday after the French election results came out, AFP reports. The news agency writes:
The outcome, in which no bloc is expected to have an outright majority, has left the country in a “thick fog” of uncertainty, according to one pollster, with the euro dropping around 0.4% from Friday’s levels before clawing back some of its losses.
“The best that can be said is that neither the (left-wing) NFP nor (far-right) National Rally will be able to implement their respective electoral manifestos in full, which would most worry investors fretful about France’s fiscal situation,” Alvin Tan of RBC capital markets said.
While “the worst outcome for the euro has been averted for now”, Tan added, uncertainty remains “and the fiscal balance is unlikely to improve significantly as a result”.
Watch far-right leader Marine Le Pen speaking after her party came in third in the elections after leftist and centrist parties struck an electoral deal to vote tactically to prevent it from achieving its predicted first place.
The National Rally leader said the party’s victory had “merely been delayed”:
The tide is rising, but it didn’t rise quite high enough this time.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has congratulated the NFP on its election results, tweeting that he was “very happy” with the “demonstration of greatness and maturity” that saw leftist and centrist political forces unite to prevent the election of the far right. He wrote:
This result, as well as the victory of the Labour party in the United Kingdom, reinforces the importance of dialogue between progressive segments in defence of democracy and social justice. They should serve as an inspiration for South America.
Lula has a personal relationship with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the largest party in the leftwing blog, France Unbowed, who visited Lula while he was in jail for corruption in 2019.
Lula also met Mélenchon in Paris in 2021 and again in 2023 after being reelected as president.
Muito feliz com a demonstração de grandeza e maturidade das forças políticas da França que se uniram contra o extremismo nas eleições legislativas de hoje. Esse resultado, assim como a vitória do partido trabalhista no Reino Unido, reforça a importância do diálogo entre os…
— Lula (@LulaOficial) July 7, 2024
Former president François Hollande returns to parliament
Former president François Hollande has returned to parliament, elected in his old constituency of Corrèze under the banner of the leftwing NFP alliance with 43% of the vote.
The former Socialist beat the far-right candidate Maïtey Pouget as well as the outgoing rightwing Republicans MP Francis Dubois, who refused to withdraw from the race despite coming third in the first round.
Hollande, who left office in 2017 with record levels of unpopularity, surprised the country and his former party by announcing his candidacy three weeks ago.
He is hated by parts of the radical left and even the Socialist leadership regards him with suspicion. When he made his announcement one senior Socialist figure was quoted as saying that the party was “devastated” by the news.
Speaking after his election, Hollande said the result had “given us the satisfaction of having ensured that the far right is a minority in the National Assembly but also a huge responsibility towards the French people”.
Le résultat de ce soir nous donne une satisfaction, celle d’avoir fait en sorte que l’extrême droite soit minoritaire à l’Assemblée nationale, mais aussi une immense responsabilité vis-à-vis des Françaises et des Français.
— François Hollande (@fhollande) July 7, 2024
Who would be a leftwing candidate for prime minister?
President Emmanuel Macron can choose whoever he wants as the next prime minister according to the constitution, but in practice he needs to chose someone acceptable to parliament – usually the leader of the largest party.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), the biggest party in the leftwing NFP bloc, which has come out on top in the polls, says prime minister Gabriel Attal “has to go” and that the French left is “ready to govern”.
But it’s unclear who the alliance’s candidate to be prime minister would be, given that Mélenchon is a divisive figure even within his own party.
LFI lawmaker Clementine Autain called on the NFP alliance to gather on Monday to decide on a suitable candidate for prime minister.
The alliance, “in all its diversity”, needed “to decide on a balance point to be able to govern”, she said, AFP reported, adding neither former Socialist president François Hollande nor Mélenchon would do.
The leader of the Socialist Party (PS) Olivier Faure urged “democracy” within the leftwing alliance so they could work together.
“To move forward together we need democracy within our ranks,” he said.
“No outside remarks will come and impose themselves on us,” he said in a thinly veiled criticism of Mélenchon.
In Macron’s entourage, there was no indication of his next move.
“The question we’re going to have to ask ourselves tonight and in the coming days is: which coalition is capable of reaching the 289 seats to govern?”, one person close to him told Reuters.
How have the papers covered the election?
Here are some of the headlines from the French and UK media:
The Guardian says “Surprise surge for left pushes French far right into third”
Le Figaro writes “The RN fails, the left imposes itself on Macron”
La Libération says “C’est OUF”, a play on words meaning “it’s phew” or “ it’s madness”:
La Croix’s headline reads, “France says no to RN”:
🗞️ #ÀLaUne de La Croix :
🟠La France dit non au RN
▶ Moyen-Orient – Le retour d’une « cohabitation » à l’iranienne
▶ Royaume-Uni – Une nouvelle page s’ouvre avec le travailliste Keir Starmer
▶ Au château de Versailles, le grand bal des chevaux pic.twitter.com/A6bmr1PLWP— La Croix (@LaCroix) July 7, 2024
The Times says “Hard-left leader claims victory in French election shock”:
The Financial Times says “France’s leftist alliance on track to halt rise of Le Pen’s RN, polls show”.
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the parliamentary elections in France, where people are waking up to an uncertain political landscape after an election on Sunday that saw the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance win the most votes but without winning an absolute majority.
The result was a blow to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), which had been predicted to win the most seats but came in third, as well as President Emmanuel Macron, whose centrist Together alliance lost about 80 seats and came in second place.
A hung parliament is unknown territory for France, which has no modern history of coalition governments. It also means Macron, who has three remaining years in office, will probably “cohabit” with a prime minister who does not share his political affiliations.
Prime minister Gabriel Attal has said he will offer his resignation on Monday but there is no obvious candidate to replace him; Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed, the largest party in the NFP, is a controversial figure disliked by even some within his own party.
If Macron attempts to appoint someone from within his own centrist alliance they will be seen as lacking in legitimacy. With no clear path forward the president will be weakened both at home and abroad.
The key developments:
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The leftwing NFP alliance became the biggest force in the French parliament but failed to win an outright majority in a surprise result that saw the far-right National Rally (RN) drop to third place. The NFP won 182 seats in the 577-seat parliament, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance won 163 seats and the RN won 143 seats.
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Prime minister Gabriel Attal said he would hand in his resignation to president Macron on Monday morning, but added that he could stay in place for the short term, if required, while a new government was formed. “Tonight, a new era begins,” he said, adding that France’s destiny would play out “more than ever in parliament”.
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The result means a hung parliament in a country not used to coalition government and which in modern times has always had a dominant party in parliament. Jockeying for the position of prime minister began immediately but there is no clear candidate.
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Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who intends to run for president in 2027, said the her party’s rise to power would continue. She said: “The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and our victory has simply been deferred.”
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RN leader Jordan Bardella called the cooperation between anti-RN forces a “disgraceful alliance” that would paralyse France.
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Macron can choose who he wants as prime minister but many within his alliance have said they will not work with France Unbowed, the hard left party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon which is the largest in the NFP alliance. The president could ask a Socialist or Greens MP but they may not be willing. A centrist candidate could also be an unpopular choice as Macron’s alliance lost so many seats in the election.
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Mélenchon said Macron “must invite the New Popular Front to govern”. “The will of the people must be strictly respected,” he said.
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Raphael Glucksmann, from the Socialist party and part of the NFP, urged his alliance partners to act like “grown-ups”. “We’re ahead, but we’re in a divided parliament,” he said. “We’re going to have to talk, to discuss, to engage in dialogue.”