2024 NFL Mock Draft: J.J. McCarthy sneaks into top three, four QBs go top five; AFC contender trades up for WR

Don’t overthink this, Chicago. Caleb Williams is the best QB in this draft class. We talked to him at the combine, and not only was he humble, it was pretty clear that all he cares about is winning.

No player did more for their draft stock during the 2023 college football season than Jayden Daniels. His playing style reminds me of Lamar Jackson, and I’ve said this for months now: would be shocking if, five years from now, Daniels ends up as the best QB in this class?

J.J. McCarthy might be one of the most polarizing players in this class, and I’ll admit it, I was skeptical that he was worthy of a first-round pick. It’s not because he isn’t talented (his athleticism and arm strength are impressive), but because he wasn’t asked to do a lot in Michigan’s offense. But go back and watch his throws on third down and 6 to 10 yards to go: he completed 73% of his attempts — many of them NFL throws — with 5 touchdowns and no turnovers. We also talked to him at the combine and the charisma and leadership just ooze off him. And I get it, you might think that we got caught up in the moment, but I’ll just say this: last year when we spoke to C.J. Stroud at the combine, those very same qualities were blindingly obvious in person, and it certainly didn’t hurt his cause during a historic rookie season.

Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t work out at the combine — he even no-showed for media availability — and it looks like he won’t work out at the Ohio State Pro Day, either. And none of it will affect his draft stock.

Last year, three QBs went in the top 4 picks. And in 2021, the top 3 selections were all QBs. You’d have to go back to 2017 to find the last time four QBs went in the top 10 (before that? 1949). We could see four quarterbacks off the board through five picks this year, especially if multiple teams are able to trade up. And that’s what happens in this mock draft: the Vikings move up to take Drake Maye as their next face of the franchise. The implication, of course, is that Kirk Cousins signs a huge deal with the Falcons, Broncos or even the Raiders because otherwise, any of those three teams could be looking to move up for a QB, too.

I was tempted to take Malik Nabers here, but if the plan is to roll with Daniel Jones for another season, there has to be some questions answered along the offensive line. Olu Fashanu is just 21 years old, he’s insanely athletic and he would’ve been a top-10 pick had he come out a year ago.

Joe Alt had a solid 2022 but took his game to another level last season for Notre Dame. He’s 6-foot-8 and moves like a tight end. He’s a Day 1 starter in Tennessee, and he’ll line up next to 2023 first-rounder Peter Skoronski who played well at left guard when healthy as a rookie.

Jared Verse’s combine performance reinforced everything we all saw on tape the last two seasons at Florida State. He’s a powerful pass-rusher with a non-stop motor who shows up big when the game is on the line.

Best-case scenario for the Bears here. They land Caleb Williams, and then a run on quarterbacks and teams having to fill needs along the offensive line lead to Nabers falling right in their lap. He’s legit a top 5 talent, and now Chicago has QB1 and essentially WR1.5 based on all the things Nabers does at such a high level.

This is a deep offensive line class. It’s an even deeper wide receiver class, but there’s only one Rome Odunze who, like Nabers, would end up hearing his name called inside the top 5 picks if not for the quarterbacks. We talked to him at the combine, and he explained the progress he made from 2022 to 2023 in pretty simple terms: No one was going to outwork him. Garrett Wilson needs some help, and Oduzne feels like the perfect fit.

The Chargers have used recent first-round picks on left tackle Rashawn Slater and left guard Zion Johnson, and now they’re going to the well once more for Fuaga, who dominated the Pac 12 as a right tackle for the Beavers. He’s a Day 1 plug-and-play starter who is as powerful as they come in this class but who also has the athleticism to get into space and destroy second-level defenders.

Denver would love a QB — and for our purposes here, we can assume it landed Cousins if it’s not trading up — but it lands the twitchiest interior defensive lineman in the class.

Quinyon Mitchell is long, fluid and was a pass-breakup machine at Toledo. And that’s exactly who he was at the Senior Bowl, and what he re-reconfirmed again in Indy at the combine with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash time, a 38-inch vertical jump and 20 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press.

Dallas Turner tested well at the combine, and it just confirmed what we all saw the past two seasons. Will Anderson Jr. told us that Turner was a more complete player coming out of Alabama than he was, and that means the Saints are getting a steal here.

There is no one in this draft class who is more driven to be great than Terrion Arnold, and I don’t say that lightly. My co-host on the “With the First Pick” podcast, former Vikings GM Rick Spielman, talked to Arnold after the Tennessee game last fall — the game where Arnold was benched — and told him a lot had to change if he was going to enter the draft. Arnold took it to heart, wrote down every word, and made a promise to Spielman that he would be a different player the next time they met. Arnold had 4 interceptions over the second half of the 2023 season and could very easily be CB1 in this draft.

Bills fans have been clamoring for a wide receiver for months now, so who am I to argue with them. It’s a deep class, yes, but Thomas is special, even among this group of peers. He’s a touchdown machine who at nearly 6-foot-3, 209 pounds, blazed a 4.33-second 40-yard dash time at the combine. And he plays every bit that fast on tape. He might be one of the few people who Josh Allen would have a hard time overthrowing.

At the combine. Nate Wiggins measured 6-foot-1 and ran a 4.28-second 40-yard dash — and the tape matches the measurables. But he also weighed 173 pounds (he looked a little bigger than that on tape), which fair or not, will draw comps to the Commanders first-rounder from a year ago, Emmanuel Forbes, who weighed 166. In my mind, Wiggins is the more complete player who does a lot of things really, really well, but he’ll have to show he can handle the rigors of the position against WRs that outweigh him by 25 pounds at the next level.

JC Latham’s nickname is Trench King, and that’s exactly how he plays. He’s an enormous physical presence on the right side, but he’s incredibly athletic for that size. Brock Bowers was a serious consideration herem, but Cincy has to fix the offensive line.

The ball-hawking Cooper DeJean is super athletic, and he can line up just about anywhere (and he’s an asset in the return game, too). That versatility and rare athleticism will make him a good fit in L.A.

There are very few holes in Jackson Powers-Johnson’s game. He can play either guard or center in the NFL, and this pick for the Steelers should give fans the same feeling they had when the team took Maurkice Pouncey or David DeCastro in Round 1.

I’m as shocked as you that Brock Bowers was still available here. There were a few trades above that were for other position needs that pushed Bowers down, but it’s hard to envision how a top 10 player (he’s actually No. 6 on our big board) lasts this long. I get it. But as I’ve written in the past: In the last 20 years, 19 tight ends have gone in the first round. Five of those were selected in the top 10 (Eric Ebron, 10th overall in 2014; T.J. Hockenson, 8th overall in 2019; Kellen Winslow II and Vernon Davis, 6th overall in 2004 and 2006; and Kyle Pitts, 4th overall in 2021). The other 14 were drafted between No. 19 and No. 32. And 10 months ago, Sam LaPorta lasted until Round 2.

The biggest issues facing Laiatu Latu will be if he’s cleared medically after a neck injury sidelined his career a few years ago. Because on the field, he is a juiced-up power rusher who dominated during the 2023 season, then at the Senior Bowl, and then showed out at the combine, too.

Johnny Newton played on an Illini defense in 2022 that included No. 5 overall pick Devon Witherspoon and Day 2 selections Quan Martin and Sydney Brown. He had a strong 2023 campaign and will be in the running for DT1 alongside Byron Murphy II. Newton didn’t take part in combine workouts because he’s recovering from surgery on a foot injury he suffered late last season.

Fautanu was excellent at left tackle for the Huskies during their run to the national title last season, and that athleticism should keep him outside at the next level.

I considered Amarius Mims or Tyler Guyton here, but both play right tackle and it’s not clear the Packers have any interest in moving Zach Toms to the left side. But the team does have needs in the secondary, and good luck finding a more aggressive cornerback than Ennis Rakestraw, Jr., whom we spoke with at the combine and reminds me a lot of Devon Witherspoon. At 5-foot-11, he’s slightly taller than Jaire Alexander when he came out of Louisville, but Rakestraw weighs just 183 pounds, a full 13 pounds less than Alexander when he was at the combine. But again, Rakestraw plays much bigger — and stronger — both in coverage and against the run, and it consistently shows up on tape.

Yes, Keon Coleman ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but I do not care. At all. He also hit more than 20 miles per hour in the gauntlet drill and didn’t drop a pass. We talk about the importance of game speed all the time, and the only more obvious example might be Puka Nacua, who ran a 4.57 at the 2023 combine — only to have a record-setting rookie campaign for the Rams.

Amarius Mims’ size and athleticism are special, even in this top-flight offensive line draft class. The only issues are that he hasn’t played much football and he struggled to stay healthy last fall. But when he was on the field — including his very first college start against Ohio State in the College Football Playoff back in January 2023, he has been dominant. And if he had stayed healthy in 2023 (he also tweaked his hamstring at the combine) he would’ve been an easy top 15 pick.

When asked in recent weeks, the Seahawks haven’t issued a full-throated long-term endorsement of Geno Smith … but they didn’t do it a year ago either, and Smith went on to have another spectacular season. But if the team loves one of the QBs in this class, everything’s on the table. I’ve long thought Michael Penix Jr. played like a first-rounder during the 2023 season, and he looked sharp during combine drills, too. The injury history is a concern, yes, but in this mock draft, the Seahawks trade down, acquire picks, and get Penix Jr. on the fifth-year option.

It came as a surprise to no one that Chop Robinson tested through the roof at the combine. He also weighed 254 pounds, though you’d like to see him stand up at the point with more consistency. That said, he played with one of the highest motors in college football and that — along with the ability to bend the corner like few in this class — translates immediately to the NFL.

Graham Barton played left tackle his final three seasons at Duke, and he was the anchor of that unit, but his NFL future will be inside, either at guard or center. And with both of Baltimore’s guards set to hit free agency, Barton makes sense here.

Darius Robinson quietly had a dominant season for the Tigers, and followed that up with a not-so-quiet Senior Bowl week, where he showed he can play both as an edge rusher or kick inside. I don’t care that he ran a 4.95-second 40-yard dash at the combine; he’s 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds with 34.5-inch arms and a 35-inch vertical. He’s explosive and powerful and feels like a natural fit in San Francisco.

Two weeks ago, we did a two-round mock draft on the “With the First Pick” podcast, and I had Worthy going at the top of the second round. I love the toughness with which he plays (despite weighing just 165 pounds as the combine), and that record-setting 4.21-second 40-yard dash just reinforced what everyone else already knew. Imagine this offense with Hall of Famers Mahomes and Kelce alongside Worthy and Rashee Rice, now entering Year 2.